Why Democrats won't win the Senate

Bob Menendez, Brett Kavanaugh, and the death of Democrats' Senate dreams

Bob Menendez and Brett Kavanaugh.
(Image credit: Illustrated | qingwa/iStock, rarrarorro/iStock, Tom Williams-Pool/Getty Images, Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images, jessicahyde/iStock)

In 2016, we learned that political battlegrounds turn up in surprising places. The "blue wall" on which Democrats relied to ensure Hillary Clinton's election — Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — collapsed as populism swept President Trump into office. The upcoming midterms might produce yet another surprising battleground — one that improbably could determine control of the U.S. Senate.

For much of this year, Trump's unpopularity and the normal currents of midterm elections seemed to put Senate control into play, even though Democrats are facing an incredibly tough map. As the GOP faded at the end of the summer in generic congressional balloting, people wondered what seat might end up tipping control in one direction or the other. Would it be Nevada, where incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller has to win in a state that Clinton carried? Or would it be Missouri, where Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill is fighting for her political life? Or North Dakota? Or Tennessee? What state will give us the biggest surprise on Election Night?

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Edward Morrissey

Edward Morrissey has been writing about politics since 2003 in his blog, Captain's Quarters, and now writes for HotAir.com. His columns have appeared in the Washington Post, the New York Post, The New York Sun, the Washington Times, and other newspapers. Morrissey has a daily Internet talk show on politics and culture at Hot Air. Since 2004, Morrissey has had a weekend talk radio show in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area and often fills in as a guest on Salem Radio Network's nationally-syndicated shows. He lives in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota with his wife, son and daughter-in-law, and his two granddaughters. Morrissey's new book, GOING RED, will be published by Crown Forum on April 5, 2016.