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road to the Oscars
February 11, 2019

Ahead of the 2019 Oscars, is Best Picture Roma's to lose?

The Netflix film on Sunday took Best Film at the 2019 British Academy Film Awards, the British equivalent of the Oscars and the last major awards show before the Academy Awards, per The Wrap. Roma's Alfonso Cuarón also took home Best Director. BAFTA's track record of predicting the Best Picture Oscar has been a bit mixed, with the organization incorrectly picking Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri in 2018, La La Land in 2017, and The Revenant in 2016. But the BAFTAs and the Oscars did line up consistently from 2009 through 2014.

Roma's BAFTA win comes after it already took home the top prizes at the Critics Choice Awards and the Directors Guild of America Awards, although Green Book is a strong Oscar contender as well, having won at the Golden Globe Awards and the Producers Guild of America Awards. Many pundits felt the BAFTAs would go for the British film The Favourite, so the fact that Roma reigned puts it in an even stronger position ahead of the Oscars, voting for which begins on Feb. 12.

That's not to say BAFTA didn't love The Favourite, though, as the film picked up seven awards, including Best Actress in a Leading Role for Olivia Colman and Best Actress in a Supporting Role for Rachel Weisz. But Oscar frontrunners Glenn Close and Regina King don't necessarily need to panic. Gold Derby points out a number of instances in which British actors have had the advantage at the BAFTAs over the eventual Oscar winner, such as when Dev Patel defeated Mahershala Ali in 2017, but Ali won the Oscar.

Speaking of Ali, he took Best Actor in a Supporting Role at the BAFTAs, while Rami Malek took Best Actor in a Leading Role as both actors look to have their respective Oscars locked up. Read the full BAFTA results at The Wrap. Brendan Morrow

December 4, 2018

In the latest preview of the 2019 Oscars, a list of the best films of the year that often forecasts the Academy's Best Picture choices has just been unveiled.

The American Film Institute on Tuesday released its picks for the ten best films of 2018: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Eighth Grade, If Beale Street Could Talk, The Favorite, First Reformed, Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, and A Star Is Born. At the end of a year in which the Academy briefly discussed introducing an award for "popular film," it's worth noting that nearly half the movies on this list would easily qualify. Black Panther, A Quiet Place and A Star Is Born were all box office hits, and Mary Poppins Returns looks set to join those ranks when it opens on Dec. 19.

The AFI's list often has a fair amount in common with the Oscars, although it never lines up exactly. Last year, seven out of the 10 films on the AFI's top 10 list went on to receive a Best Picture nomination, but The Big Sick, The Florida Project, and Wonder Woman didn't make it. Gold Derby points out that since 2010, the AFI has predicted 65 of 73 Best Picture nominees, not counting films made outside of the United States since those aren't eligible for the AFI's list.

One notable snub here is First Man, Damien Chazelle's Neil Armstrong biopic that has been gunning for a Best Picture nomination but was a box office bomb and was previously snubbed by the National Board of Review. Adam McKay's Dick Cheney biopic Vice was also left out in the cold, as was Widows, Steve McQueen's heist thriller starring Viola Davis. Netflix's Roma, a Best Picture frontrunner, isn't included either, but that's just because it wasn't eligible. Instead, it received a special award. Brendan Morrow

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