Presented with generic Democratic and Republican candidates for a House of Representatives seat, 50 percent of Americans say they'd vote blue and just 40 percent would vote red, a new ABC/Washington Post poll published Monday reveals.
Among registered voters, the margin narrows from 10 to four points, though the generic Democrat still wins with 47 percent support to the Republican's 43 percent. The survey's margin of error is 3.5 percent, making that race a statistical tie. For registered voters who are certain to vote, Democrats lead by five points.
And though that 10-point lead sounds impressive, Democrats' margin of victory has shrunk dramatically since January. Asked the same questions then, generic House Democrats had 13-, 12-, and 15-point leads over their generic GOP counterparts among voters, registered voters, and registered voters who are certain to vote, respectively.
Pollsters posited lessening identification with the Democratic Party and a new attention to voting for candidates who share one's perspective on gun regulation as probable factors in this shift. Bonnie Kristian
Americans increasingly dislike and distrust Facebook, two new polls from Axios/Survey Monkey and Reuters/Ipsos reveal.
The Axios survey found Facebook's net favorability has dropped by 28 percent since October. As of this month, the social network's net favorability, the gap between approval and disapproval, is still barely positive at just 5 percent. Other tech giants, including Amazon, Google, Apple, Twitter, and Microsoft, also saw their favorability drop by smaller amounts over the five-month span — though with the exception of Twitter, they both started and ended in a more positive place than Facebook.
Meanwhile, only 41 percent of Americans told Reuters they trust Facebook to obey privacy laws when handling their personal information. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft all scored at least 60 percent trust on this point.
Facebook chiefs Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg have said they know they are facing "an issue of trust" and are at a "critical moment for our company." About 2 in 3 Americans have a Facebook account. Bonnie Kristian
The U.S. invaded Iraq 15 years ago today. Americans are still split on whether that was a good idea.
Tuesday, March 20, marks 15 years since the United States invaded Iraq to depose Saddam Hussein and find those elusive weapons of mass destruction.
At the time of the invasion, nearly 3 in 4 Americans said using military force was the right choice, but since 2006, public opinion has almost always shifted toward opposition. As of this year, Pew Research reports, 48 percent say the war was the wrong choice, and 43 percent still believe it was a good idea.
Among those who support the invasion, 61 percent are Republicans or independents who lean Republican. Republicans are also more likely to say the United States "succeeded in achieving its goals in Iraq." Overall, 53 percent of Americans say the U.S. failed to achieve those goals, a proportion that has held steady since 2014.
A majority of Americans believe the U.S. government is engaged in mass surveillance of the general public and is influenced by the "deep state," a "group of unelected government and military officials who secretly manipulate or direct national policy," a new Monmouth University poll published Monday reports.
Asked whether the "U.S. government currently monitors or spies on the activities of American citizens," 82 percent of respondents said yes, with 53 percent affirming that such surveillance is "widespread" and 29 percent believing it happens less often. When such surveillance does occur, just 18 percent believe it is "usually justified," while 8 in 10 said it is only sometimes or rarely legitimate.
On the subject of the deep state, three-quarters of survey participants said it "definitely" or "probably" exists. Fully 63 percent were not familiar with the term before it was explained by pollsters, but "there's an ominous feeling by Democrats and Republicans alike that a 'Deep State' of unelected operatives are pulling the levers of power," said Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray.
Americans rank cyberterrorism and North Korea's nuclear weapons development program as the two most critical threats to the United States, a new Gallup poll released Monday reveals. The two are in a statistical tie, and just 3 percent of Americans consider each unimportant.
Intriguingly, though international terrorism of the offline variety takes a close third place, other security issues Gallup listed ranked much lower in respondents' concern. Only 39 percent of Americans — fewer than half of those most worried about cyberterrorism and North Korea — said "large numbers of immigrants entering the United States" is a critical threat. Moreover, 29 percent said it's not a threat at all.
With the exception of cyberterrorism, Gallup found Republicans are across the board more likely than Democrats to deem a threat "critical." Bonnie Kristian
Half of millennials expect to vote for Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections, and only a quarter anticipate they'll support Republicans, a new NBC News/GenForward poll released Monday found. But the generation's distaste for the GOP — only 24 percent view it favorably — does not equate to uncomplicated enthusiasm for the Democratic Party.
Millennials' overall favorable and unfavorable views of Democrats are in a statistical tie (the margin of error is 3.95 points), though a marked disparity is seen between the views of white millennials and their peers of color.
The same survey found about two-thirds of millennials disapprove of Congress, President Trump, and the direction of the country as a whole, though nearly the same proportion (59 percent) are optimistic about their personal futures.
More than 8 in 10 agreed that "the government is run by a few big interests looking out for themselves and their friends," a view held without racial division. Millennials are skeptical of the ability of elections to effect real change, but they are far more confident in the power of community groups to improve America. See more from the poll results here. Bonnie Kristian
After President Trump declared himself "like, really smart" and "a very stable genius," the enterprising pollsters at ABC News and The Washington Post took it upon themselves to ask voters if they agree. The results are unlikely to please the president: Three in four respondents said they do not consider Trump a genius, and about half do not believe him to be mentally stable.
Only Republicans specifically are confident in Trump's stability — just 14 percent say he is not mentally stable — but they are less convinced of his genius, as only 50 percent of GOP voters agree with that claim.
The same survey found white women, whose votes were key in securing Trump's victory in 2016, now favor Democrats by a large margin when presented with a generic ballot. Read The Week's breakdown of that part of the poll, including what it means for Democrats' chance to retake Congress this year, here. Bonnie Kristian
Americans are predictably polarized on whether President Trump aced or failed his first year, a new Politico/Morning Consult poll published Tuesday reveals.
While 34 percent say he should get an A or B for the last 12 months, slightly more — 35 percent — give Trump an F. Middle ground is sparse, with 11 percent scoring Trump's year with a D and 14 percent a C average. At the individual issue level, Trump scored best on the economy, jobs, and fighting terrorism and worst on draining the swamp.
Broken down by demographic markers, the poll results stayed consistent with past survey trends. Men remain more positive about Trump than women, as do Republicans compared to both Democrats and independents. Trump's grades have gotten worse overall since his 100-day mark, when Politico/Morning Consult conducted the same grading poll, but Republicans are actually happier with him now than they were then. Bonnie Kristian